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tucky, where Obama is largely unpopular, Abramowitz said.
• On the flip side, the same trend erects serious barriers for Republicans trying to grab Senate seats in Oregon, Iowa, Colorado, Michigan and other states Obama carried. Republicans hope for an anti-Democratic wave, largely fueled by distaste for the president's health law. Democrats say Republicans are choosing nominees too conservative for these states.
• Not all Senate races adhere to the trend.
• Four Democrats now seeking re-election proved that in 2008, by winning after their states voted Republican in the previous presidential contest: Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Kay Hagan of North Carolina, and Mark Begich of Alaska. Hagan's victory, however, came as Obama narrowly carried her state. He lost North Carolina in 2012.
• Privately, Democrats have all but conceded West Virginia and South Dakota, where Obama lost badly and where longtime Democratic senators are retiring. They're also deeply worried about Montana, where Obama also lost.
• Few Senate races stir more passion than does Kentucky's. Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, Kentucky's secretary of state, is trying to oust McConnell. The five-term senator is poised to become majority leader if he survives and Republicans take over the Senate.
• Strategists in both parties agree that if generic, plain-vanilla nominees were running, hardly anyone would consider Kentucky a serious Democratic prospect. But they note McConnell's low approval ratings, and Grimes' youthful, non-Washington image.
• The same handicappers, however, often ignore the fact that some McConnell critics are fierce conservatives who are extremely unlikely to vote for Grimes. McConnell, a ferocious and seasoned campaigner, will spend millions trying to persuade them to show their dislike for Obama by voting against the Democratic nominee, even if holding their noses.
• "I have a very hard time seeing a scenario where he loses," said GOP consultant Brian Walsh. "He's got the best campaign team in the country," he said, and Obama's new limits on coal-fired power plants will hurt Grimes in the coal-producing state.
• Georgia is a bit more worrisome for Republicans, Walsh said. Democratic political novice Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn, is running in a state where GOP Senate victories are almost routine. Two establishment-backed Republicans, businessman David Perdue and Rep. Jack Kingston, are competing for the GOP nomination.
• Obama lost Georgia by only 7 percentage points in 2012 without seriously cam

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