Tuesday,  Feb. 18, 2014 • Vol. 16--No. 217 • 5 of 43

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cover has been low and so, according to the model simulations, that would encourage this kind of weather pattern," Professor Rahmstorf said.
• "The last winter of 2009-10 turned out to be fitting that pattern very well, and perhaps this winter as well, so that is three data points. I would say it's not definite confirmation of the mechanism, but it certainly fits the pattern," he said.
• The computer model used by the scientists also predicted that, as the ice cover continues to be lost, the weather pattern is likely to shift back into a phase of warmer-than-usual winters. Global warming will also continue to warm the Arctic air mass, Professor Rahmstorf said.
• "If you look ahead 40 or 50 years, these cold winters will be getting warmer because, even though you are getting an inflow of cold polar air, that air mass is getting warmer because of the greenhouse effect," he said. "So it's a transient phe

nomenon. In the long run, global warming wins out."

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