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of world corn exports is expected to grow to almost 46 percent (63.5 MMT of corn). In 2012, South Dakota growers produced almost 5 percent of the nation's corn, and in 2011 they produced slightly over 5 percent," he said.
• Assuming corn growers in other states continue to produce the same share of our nation's corn, and the U.S. exports 20.3 more MMT in 2022/23 than today, South Dakota will need to increase production by almost 40 million bushels - 7.5 percent of 2012 production - just to meet the increase in export demand. This increase does not account for any change in corn demand because of expanded livestock exports.
• Since 2011, global trade of soybeans and soybean products has been larger than trade in wheat or coarse grains.
• "Although global trade in all these commodities is projected to increase annually during the decade, combined trade of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil will continue to surpass both wheat and coarse grains trade. Particularly strong demand for meal and oil from Asia is expected. For example, in the coming decade, China is expected to account for 90 percent of the increase in global soybean imports," he said.
• By 2022/23 the U.S. is projected to increase soybean exports to 43.8 MMT, up from 41.2 MMT in 2013/14. However, Dillivan said the U.S. share of total world soybean exports will fall to just over 30 percent - down from 39.2 percent today.
• "South Dakota produces almost 4.7 percent of our nation's soybeans. Assuming soybean growers in other states continue to produce the same share of our nation's soybeans, and the U.S. exports 2.6 MMT more soybeans in 2022/23 than today, South Dakota will need to increase production by 4.5 million bushels - a little more than 3 percent of 2012 production," Dillivan said.
• Demand for South Dakota soybean production will likely be somewhat higher than this projection as the U.S. exports 10.0 MMT of soybean meal in 2022/23 and 1.2 MMT of soybean oil, up from 8.8 and 0.5 MMT respectively in 2013/14. Like corn, this increase is in addition to any demand increase resulting from increased livestock exports.
• South Dakota has dramatically increased its production of corn and soybeans; particularly since 1980.
• "An expansion of row-crop production has been one result of favorable corn and soybean prices resulting from expanded biofuel production and increases in export demand," he said. "In 2012 South Dakota ranked sixth nationally in corn production and ninth in soybean production. While some wheat acres have shifted into corn and soybean production, total South Dakota wheat production has remained fairly constant during the past three decades."