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services, shuttered businesses--are likely to get worse in the next 23 years, if population projections from the South Dakota Rural Life and Census Data Center prove accurate. One problem is likely to be particularly noticeable: A significant increase in the number of elderly in communities with fewer able-bodied people to take care of them.
• McCurry complied and analyzed the results of the 2010 census and projected them out to 2035, with the assumption that current trends will continue. Those projections show that the average age in South Dakota is rising faster than the national average, a trend that will likely have a serious impact on rural communities. Of the factors that influence average age, the greatest is the migration of young people to larger cities and other states. 
• "We looked at outmigration and we looked at birth rates, and if we continued the same rate as we've got, at the end of it, we wound up with the entire middle of the population disappearing," said State Demographer Mike McCurry.
• Losing the middle of the population leads to high dependency ratios in rural counties and communities. The dependency ratio compares the number of people aged 14-64, basically those of working age, to the number of people younger than 14 and older than 64 who are not yet or no longer working. (It is calculated by dividing the number of dependents by the number of people aged 14-64, multiplied by 100.)
• Right now, the Dakotafire region has counties with dependency ratios as low as 55, meaning nearly two working people to support every dependent person. This is a fairly healthy dependency ratio. Faulk County's is 74, which is probably noticeable to its residents; McPherson County's dependency ratio of 90 is almost certainly putting strain on the county's resources.

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