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(Michael Irvin). That's how things fall into place."
• Carson Palmer, chosen first in 2003 by Cincinnati and now with Oakland, think some top picks try too hard and wind up struggling.
• "There's a reason that you are being talked about that highly in the draft," Palmer said. "Just be you, don't try to be somebody you think they want you to be."
• ___
• DON'T PLAY THE QB: Sam Dorward, a junior at Yale studying economics and statistics, believes it's unwise to play a rookie quarterback -- don't tell that to the Colts and Redskins, who plan to do exactly that with the top two picks Thursday night, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III.
• Dorward's statistical analysis covering more than a decade shows that "benching quarterbacks during their rookie year causes them to play much better throughout their entire career." He argues that they complete a higher percentage of passes (6.5 per 100 passes) and have a higher defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) rating than quarterbacks who did start during their rookie year (by 9.5 points).
• DVOA is a metric that compares the performance of quarterbacks in similar situations. For example, how does Tom Brady perform on first-and-10 at his 30-yard-line compared to all other quarterbacks in that same situation?
• "Look at Drew Brees and Kyle Orton," Dorward said. "They completed about the same percentage of passes, threw about the same percentage of interceptions, and played about the same number of games at the same college. They took the starting spot for teams that had the same record in the previous year.
• "But Kyle Orton started during his first season, while Drew Brees started during his second season. Orton's first season was a disaster, while Brees' first season was respectable. And Orton has never fully recovered. In his career, Brees has had a DVOA that is 20 points higher and a completion percentage that is 7.5 points higher."
• NFL draft consultant Gil Brandt, the former general manager of the Cowboys, understands the rationale behind Dorward's studies. He's not sure it applies any longer.
• "I think eight to 10 years ago, that was a valid thing," Brandt said. "I think that now, the quarterback that comes to college, then to the NFL, is so much more advanced than before. They have the 7 on 7 scrimmages or workouts they do in the summertime even before they get to college.
• "The quarterbacks who go into the colleges are so much more ready to play, and then the same thing happens when they come into the pros, so much more than just

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